Oil prices today remain volatile after U.S. strikes on Iran. Discover why Brent could hit $110, what it means for gasoline, and how to protect your wallet.
Did you know? Brent crude spiked above $81 per barrel within hours of the joint U.S.–Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites—but then tumbled 6 percent as traders weighed the odds of an all-out blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.reuters.com The roller-coaster highlights how every headline in the new Middle-East conflict can move pump prices overnight.
Market Snapshot: Oil Prices Today at a Glance
Brent futures opened the week just under $77, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly slipped to $71 after an early surge.cbsnews.com Goldman Sachs now pegs a $10 per-barrel geopolitical risk premium in current prices.reuters.com
Key Benchmarks (23 June 2025, GMT 17:00)
| Contract | Last Settle | Day Move | 52-Week High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Aug ‘25 | $76.98 | –0.1 % | $91.40 |
| WTI Jul ‘25 | $71.06 | –3.8 % | $87.10 |
Data: Reuters, ICE Futures Europereuters.com
Conflict Context: Why the Iran-Israel War Matters
Timeline of Escalation
- 16 Jun 2025 – Israel confirms covert attacks on Iranian proxies.
- 22 Jun – U.S. cruise missiles strike three Iranian nuclear facilities.bloomberg.com
- 23 Jun – Iran retaliates with drone strikes on a U.S. base in Kuwait; oil prices whipsaw.reuters.com
U.S. Strategic Posture
Washington insists that strikes are “limited,” yet dispatches two carrier groups to the Gulf, signalling readiness to secure energy lanes.washingtonpost.com Former President Trump publicly urged “everyone” to keep oil prices down—a reminder of the political stakes heading into the 2026 mid-terms.bloomberg.com
Supply-Side Dynamics Shaping Oil Prices Today
OPEC+ Capacity and Spare Cushion
The IEA projects global supply rising 1.8 mb/d in 2025, driven mainly by U.S. shale and Brazil.iea.org But if Iran’s 1.5 mb/d exports are curtailed, the cartel’s spare capacity—about 4 mb/d—may narrow quickly, forcing Saudi Arabia to decide between prices and market share.
Strait of Hormuz: Chokepoint Risk
Roughly 20 % of the world’s oil transits the 21-mile-wide strait.reuters.com War-risk insurance for tankers has already jumped from 0.2 % to 0.5 % of cargo value in a week, adding tens of thousands of dollars per voyage.reuters.com
Scenario Pricing
| Disruption Level | Lost Supply | Brent Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| None (base-case) | 0 mb/d | $80–85 |
| 50 % Iranian cut | 0.75 mb/d | $90–95 |
| Hormuz half-shut | 10 mb/d | $110+ |
Source: Goldman Sachs & Citi scenario notes.reuters.comreuters.com
Demand-Side Considerations
U.S. Driving Season & Global Demand
AAA reports the national average unleaded price at $3.22/gal, barely up from a month ago despite the flare-up.gasprices.aaa.com Seasonally, gasoline demand climbs 3-4 % during July–August, adding upward pressure on crack spreads.
Macroeconomic Drag
The EIA still forecasts Brent averaging $74 in 2025, assuming steady global growth and rising non-OPEC output—even with higher geopolitical risk.eia.gov A global recession could shave $10–15 off crude benchmarks.
Gasoline Prices: What Drivers Will See
Refinery Economics
Crack spreads widened to $34/ bbl after the strikes but cooled to $28 as crude retreated.apnews.com U.S. Gulf-Coast refiners benefit from cheap WTI, but European drivers face Brent-linked feedstock and higher shipping insurance.
Regional Outlook
- U.S. East Coast: Prices could surge 15–25 ¢/gal if Brent breaches $95.
- UK & EU: Every $10 move in Brent adds ~7 pence per litre at the forecourt.
- Asia: Heavily exposed to Middle-East supply; could see double-digit % increases if Hormuz disruptions persist.
Analyst Forecasts & Market Scenarios
Base-Case (Contained Conflict)
Oil oscillates between $75 and $85 as Iran avoids closing Hormuz; SPR releases and OPEC spare capacity smooth shocks. Inflation impact remains modest (≤0.3 pp).
Escalation Case (Blockade ≥2 weeks)
Brent spikes above $110, global GDP growth loses 0.6 pp, and OECD retail gasoline averages rise 20 %.bloomberg.com
De-escalation Case (Diplomacy Prevails)
Prices slide toward the EIA’s $74 forecast, risk premium fades, and gasoline returns to spring lows.eia.gov
Hedging & Action Steps for Businesses and Consumers
- Lock-in fuel contracts with suppliers before crack spreads widen again.
- Monitor freight surcharges tied to war-risk premiums on Gulf routes.
- Consider hedging via NYMEX RBOB futures or Brent options; volatility offers favorable premiums.
- Adopt fuel-efficient logistics—route optimization can shave up to 8 % off diesel use.
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